Tropical Cyclone Activity
Atlantic Tropical Outlook

Pacific Tropical Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091748 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. While some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 09 Aug 2022 23:21:08 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 092320 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Aug 9 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Howard, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a disorganized area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Hurricane Howard (EP4/EP092022)
...HOWARD WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 9 the center of Howard was located near 22.5, -117.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Howard Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 092035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Howard Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 ...HOWARD WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 117.7W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 117.7 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become a remnant low by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Howard Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092034 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Howard Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 Deep convection associated with Howard has decreased in intensity and become less organized today while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have been lowered from earlier today, and the objective Dvorak intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS is below hurricane strength. Based on these values, the advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt. Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase, Howard will continue to pass over cooler ocean waters during the next couple of days. Moreover, model analyses and the presence of a field of stratocumulus clouds just to the west of the cyclone indicate that the system should soon be encountering a more stable air mass. Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast, and the official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the model consensus. Howard should make the transition into a post tropical cyclone in 48 hours, or less. Howard remains on a west-northwestward track, and continues moving at around 300/9 kt. The track forecast philosophy is essentially unchanged from the previous few advisories. A mid-level ridge extending westward from a high pressure system over the southwestern United States should keep the system on a west-northwestward course for the next day or two. Late in the forecast period, weak post-tropical Howard should turn westward following the near-surface winds. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.5N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Howard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 092035 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Howard Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2022 20:37:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2022 21:23:44 GMT