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000 ABNT20 KNHC 171147 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gert, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. Continued gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane for
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Summary for Hurricane Gert (AT3/AL082017)
...GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 17 the center of Gert was located near 43.2, -50.0 with movement ENE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Gert
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Hurricane Gert Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 171433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.2N 50.0W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]> -
Hurricane Gert Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017000 WTNT23 KNHC 171433 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Gert Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017000 WTNT43 KNHC 171434 TCDAT3 Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 The convective structure of Gert has rapidly deteriorated during the morning hours due to very cold SSTs and vertical wind shear exceeding 40 kt. The hurricane still has a little deep convection in the northeast quadrant, but the low-level circulation appears to have become somewhat elongated along a south-southwest, north-northeast axis. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased, and the initial intensity has been decreased accordingly, to 70 kt. Since there is a lack of recent scatterometer or buoy observations near the center, the intensity estimate is a little more uncertain than normal. Gert continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the initial motion estimate is 060/35 kt. Very little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast. The cyclone is quickly becoming extratropical, and the transition process should complete later today. Gert should continue to steadily spin down while moving quickly toward the northeast for the next day or so ahead of a large extratropical low currently centered near the Gulf of St. Lawrence. An interaction of the two cyclones should result in the eventual absorption or dissipation of Gert shortly after 48 h. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. Swells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 43.2N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Gert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017000 FONT13 KNHC 171434 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY -
Hurricane Gert Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 14:39:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 15:22:35 GMT
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092017)
...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 17 the center of Nine was located near 13.1, -54.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171439 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For Martinique. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward islands. If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 171439 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 54.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 54.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.1N 56.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N 59.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.5N 63.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.9N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 54.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171440 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 Satellite imagery, including experimental 1-minute data from GOES-16, indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better defined, and that a cluster of strong convection has formed just west of the center. Based on this and the potential for the system to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, advisories are being initiated as a potential tropical cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, and it is likely the aircraft will find a tropical cyclone has formed. The initial motion is 270/15. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the system should steer it generally just north of due west through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in 24-36 h, into the central Caribbean by 72 h, and to the western Caribbean by 96-120 h. The forecast track lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and lies near the various consensus models. The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should continue through the forecast period. This seems favorable for strengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady, intensification. However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the system to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean Sea, possibly due to dry air entrainment. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the GFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.1N 54.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0000Z 13.1N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 18/1200Z 13.2N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 13.5N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 13.9N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 15.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 17.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017
000
FONT14 KNHC 171439
PWSAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
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LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11)
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MARTINIQUE 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 14:45:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 15:29:30 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 171143 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure is located about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system has a broad circulation, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression may form within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 17 Aug 2017 15:34:55 GMT