Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091748
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized associated 
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands. While some gradual development of this 
system is possible over the next several days, environmental 
conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. 
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 
to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 09 Aug 2022 23:21:08 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092320
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Howard, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south 
of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a 
disorganized area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while 
it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the 
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Summary for Hurricane Howard (EP4/EP092022)

...HOWARD WEAKENING...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 9
 the center of Howard was located near 22.5, -117.7
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 989 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Howard Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 092035
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Howard Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
 
...HOWARD WEAKENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 117.7W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 117.7 West.  Howard is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady weakening is forecast during the next 
couple of days.  Howard is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm 
tonight, and become a remnant low by Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Howard Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 092034
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092022
2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 117.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Howard Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092035
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
 
Deep convection associated with Howard has decreased in intensity 
and become less organized today while the cyclone moves over cooler 
waters.  Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have been lowered 
from earlier today, and the objective Dvorak intensity estimate 
from UW-CIMSS is below hurricane strength.  Based on these values, 
the advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase, Howard 
will continue to pass over cooler ocean waters during the next 
couple of days.  Moreover, model analyses and the presence of a 
field of stratocumulus clouds just to the west of the cyclone 
indicate that the system should soon be encountering a more stable 
air mass.  Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast, and 
the official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the model 
consensus.  Howard should make the transition into a post tropical 
cyclone in 48 hours, or less.

Howard remains on a west-northwestward track, and continues moving 
at around 300/9 kt.  The track forecast philosophy is essentially 
unchanged from the previous few advisories.  A mid-level ridge 
extending westward from a high pressure system over the southwestern 
United States should keep the system on a west-northwestward course 
for the next day or two.  Late in the forecast period, weak 
post-tropical Howard should turn westward following the near-surface 
winds.  The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the 
previous one.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 22.5N 117.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Howard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 092035
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092022               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 120W       34  X  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
25N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Howard Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2022 20:37:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2022 21:23:44 GMT