000
ABNT20 KNHC 281713
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 28 Jun 2017 18:05:56 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281748
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-
Tropical Cyclone Dora, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible by early next week
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

...DORA HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 28
 the center of DORA was located near 20.1, -113.9
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 281434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...DORA HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 113.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora
was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 113.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 10
mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Dora is
expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2017  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 281434
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017
1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.9W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.9W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 281434
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Dora has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
the cyclone has degenerated into a remnant low composed of mostly
low-level stratocumulus clouds. Dvorak satellite classifications
support an intensity of 30 kt, and that is the intensity used for
this advisory. Redevelopment of significant convection is not
expected due to unfavorable SSTs of 22C-23C, and dissipation is
expected to occur in 36-48 h.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
to the north of the Dora should keep the weakening remnant low
moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next couple of
days. The new NHC forecast track is an extension of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TCVN.

This is the last advisory on Dora unless regeneration occurs. For
additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 20.1N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2017                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 281434
PWSEP4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017               
1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 115W       34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2017 14:39:48 GMT

 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2017 15:23:41 GMT