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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 190501
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nestor, located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Nestor (AT1/AL162019)
    ...WINDS AND STORM SURGE INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nestor was located near 28.8, -86.3 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Nestor

  • Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 7A
    Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190537 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...WINDS AND STORM SURGE INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 86.3W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was estimated near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 86.3 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle this morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area within the next few hours, and continue through this afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through this morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Nestor Forecast Advisory Number 7
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 190233
    TCMAT1
     
    TROPICAL STORM NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
    0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
     
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
     
    NONE.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NAVARRE FLORIDA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA
     
    A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
     
    A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
    INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
    COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
    RISK...PLEASE
    SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
    GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
    SITUATION.
    PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
    TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
    OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
    INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  87.0W AT 19/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  20 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
    50 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  87.0W AT 19/0300Z
    AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N  87.7W
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.2N  85.2W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 30NE 160SE  30SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.7N  82.3W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.9N  78.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 36.5N  73.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...100NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.5N  67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  87.0W
     
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/0600Z
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
     
     
    
  • Tropical Storm Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 7
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 190235
    TCDAT1
    
    Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number   7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
    1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
    
    The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters are investigating Nestor
    this evening, and they have found that the minimum pressure
    has dropped to 996 mb, 3 mb lower than this afternoon, but they have
    not found higher winds yet.  Based on preliminary data from both
    aircraft, the initial wind speed remains 50 kt.  The Air Force also
    reported that there is a lot of lightning occurring in the
    thunderstorms on Nestor's east side.  Nestor remains a lopsided
    tropical storm, with very intense deep convection extending well to
    the east of the center with only small areas of convection near and
    to the west of the center.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
    strong westerly wind shear associated with a nearby shortwave
    trough.  Doppler radar imagery indicates that rain bands are now
    spreading inland over much of the eastern portions of the Gulf
    coast, and surface observations show the winds increasing near the
    coast, but they are still not quite at tropical storm strength.
    
    Water vapor satellite images show that the shortwave trough is
    almost co-located with Nestor, which is likely part of the reason
    why the minimum pressure has fallen.  Even though it is not
    explicitly reflected in the forecast, Nestor could strengthen a
    little before the storm makes landfall.  However, significant
    intensification seems unlikely as the shortwave trough is expected
    to bypass the cyclone soon, leaving the storm in a less favorable
    environment of upper-level confluence and drier air. After landfall,
    weakening is forecast and the models suggest that Nestor should lose
    its tropical characteristics on Saturday when it tracks across the
    southeast U.S.  The weaker extratropical cyclone is expected to
    dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days.
    
    The tropical storm is moving quickly northeastward at about 20 kt.
    The models are in good agreement that this general motion should
    continue for the next couple of days, taking the center of the storm
    inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning and across
    portions of Georgia and the Carolinas later Saturday and Sunday.
    The weakening system is expected to slow down and turn eastward over
    the western Atlantic early next week before it merges with a cold
    front.  The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the
    previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus
    models.
    
    Given the structure of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and
    tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large portion of the
    Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center
    through Saturday.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
    up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from
    Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
    effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
    officials.
    
    2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the
    Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
    Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these
    winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.
    
    3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
    Gulf Coast and Southeast United States coast into early Sunday
    morning.
    
    4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
    be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
    offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
    characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/0300Z 28.5N  87.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
     12H  19/1200Z 30.2N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
     24H  20/0000Z 32.7N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     36H  20/1200Z 34.9N  78.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     48H  21/0000Z 36.5N  73.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  22/0000Z 37.5N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
    
    
  • Tropical Storm Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
    
    000
    FONT11 KNHC 190235
    PWSAT1
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
    0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR       
    LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
     
    RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
     
    CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
    CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
     
    CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)  20(20)  13(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
    CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)  14(14)  17(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
    NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)  18(18)  15(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
    MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)  28(29)   4(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
    SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)  29(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
    WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   1( 1)  25(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
    BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    FLORENCE SC    34  X   2( 2)  21(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
     
    COLUMBIA SC    34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
     
    LITTLE RIVER   34  X   1( 1)  30(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
    LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)  29(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
    MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)  26(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
    GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    CHARLESTON SC  34  X   4( 4)  21(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
    CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1  12(13)  11(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
    BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    AUGUSTA GA     34  1  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
     
    SAVANNAH GA    34  1  20(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
     
    KINGS BAY GA   34  3  12(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
     
    WAYCROSS GA    34  6  36(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
    WAYCROSS GA    50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
     
    JACKSONVILLE   34  4  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
     
    GAINESVILLE FL 34 12   8(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
     
    DAYTONA BEACH  34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    THE VILLAGES   34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
     
    ORLANDO FL     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    PATRICK AFB    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    VENICE FL      34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    TAMPA FL       34  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
     
    CEDAR KEY FL   34 26   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
     
    TALLAHASSEE FL 34 80  12(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
    TALLAHASSEE FL 50 10  15(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
    TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    ST MARKS FL    34 84   8(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
    ST MARKS FL    50 12  16(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
    ST MARKS FL    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    APALACHICOLA   34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
    APALACHICOLA   50 34   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
    APALACHICOLA   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
     
    GFMX 290N 850W 34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
    GFMX 290N 850W 50 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
     
    PANAMA CITY FL 34 90   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
    PANAMA CITY FL 50 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    DESTIN EXEC AP 34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    COLUMBUS GA    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    GFMX 290N 870W 34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
    
  • Tropical Storm Nestor Graphics

    Tropical Storm Nestor 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 05:38:41 GMT


    Tropical Storm Nestor 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 03:24:39 GMT
  • Tropical Storm Nestor Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

    Tropical Storm Nestor Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

    Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 03:29:59 GMT
  • Tropical Storm Nestor Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

    Tropical Storm Nestor Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

    Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:43:27 GMT

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued at  1119 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at  1131 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 /1031 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL
Issued at  1036 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190507
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located over the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific basin.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
near the west-central coast of Mexico. A weak low pressure system is
expected to develop near the coast by Saturday night and some slight
development is possible before the system moves inland and
dissipates by late Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with this disturbance could produce flash flooding and
mudslides across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain, during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A small low pressure system located over the far southwestern
portion of the East Pacific basin is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Development, if any, will be slow to occur
while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP3/EP182019)
    ...OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Octave was located near 11.5, -126.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Octave

  • Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 126.6W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 126.6 West. Octave is moving slowly toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to meander for the next several days, and little net movement is anticipated. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Octave is forecast to become a remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ23 KNHC 190232
    TCMEP3
     
    TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019
    0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.6W AT 19/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   4 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
    12 FT SEAS..  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.6W AT 19/0300Z
    AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 126.6W
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 126.6W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY
     
     
    
  • Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ43 KNHC 190233
    TCDEP3
    
    Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number   6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
    800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019
    
    Octave's convection has waxed and waned since the tropical storm
    formed yesterday, and it's once again trending upward. Convection
    redeveloped in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone during the past
    few hours, staving off remnant low status for now. The intensity
    remains 35 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The global models
    indicate that upper-level winds will become unfavorable for the
    continued maintenance of deep convection on Saturday, so Octave is
    still not expected to last much longer as a tropical cyclone. The
    new NHC forecast maintains Octave as a tropical storm for 12 more
    hours, but this could be generous. Once it becomes a remnant low,
    occasional disorganized patches of convection will probably be
    enough to maintain a weak low for at least a few more days, but it
    is not expected to make any kind of significant comeback.
    
    Octave has continued to move northward, now at 4 kt. The shallow
    tropical storm is caught between low-level southwesterly flow to its
    south and easterly trade-wind flow to its north, and the dynamical
    guidance is in extremely poor agreement on which flow regime will
    dominate the motion of the cyclone after it becomes post-tropical
    over the weekend. A few models (including the ECMWF and HMON)
    forecast that neither regime will dominate and Octave will move very
    little for the next 5 days. The overall model spread is over 600
    miles by day 5, but I have no reason to favor any one track over the
    others at this point. Therefore, the official track forecast is
    largely unchanged and lies near the middle of the unusually wide
    guidance envelope.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/0300Z 11.5N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    
  • Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
    
    000
    FOPZ13 KNHC 190232
    PWSEP3
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019               
    0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
    LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    10N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   1(16)
    10N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
     
    10N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
    
  • Tropical Storm Octave Graphics

    Tropical Storm Octave 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:34:09 GMT


    Tropical Storm Octave 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 03:31:27 GMT