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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211111
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 21 Oct 2018 17:06:50 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211111
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vicente, located about 100 miles south-southeast of Puerto
Angel, Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of hundred
miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
    ...VICENTE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Vicente was located near 14.4, -96.8 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Vicente

  • Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 9
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...VICENTE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 96.8W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 96.8 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is expected by this evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest by Monday evening. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds only extending outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches near the coast of southern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 9
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ23 KNHC 211442
    TCMEP3
     
    TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
    1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF VICENTE.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  96.8W AT 21/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  96.8W AT 21/1500Z
    AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  96.4W
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.2N  98.1W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.4N  99.8W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  96.8W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
     
     
    
  • Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 9
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ43 KNHC 211442
    TCDEP3
    
    Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
    1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
    
    Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern
    consists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized
    convection over the southwestern portion of the circulation.  There
    is little evidence of banding features at this time.  The current
    intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak
    estimates from both TAFB and SAB.  North-northeasterly vertical
    shear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of
    days.  Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the
    land mass of Mexico by mid-week.
    
    Satellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar
    indicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west,
    and the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt.  There has been
    little change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it.
    Vicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while
    moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
    pressure area.  The official track forecast is similar to the
    previous one and close to the multi-model consensus.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  21/1500Z 14.4N  96.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  22/0000Z 14.2N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
     24H  22/1200Z 14.4N  99.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
     36H  23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
     48H  23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
     72H  24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
    
    
  • Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
    
    000
    FOPZ13 KNHC 211442
    PWSEP3
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9          
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018               
    1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
    LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
     
    15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)
     
    MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   X(28)   X(28)
    MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
    MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)  14(39)   X(39)   X(39)
    L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
    L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
     
    ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)   8(32)   X(32)   X(32)
    ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
    ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    15N 100W       34  X  32(32)  21(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
    15N 100W       50  X   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
    15N 100W       64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
     
    ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
    
  • Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics

    Tropical Storm Vicente 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 14:44:05 GMT


    Tropical Storm Vicente 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 15:21:56 GMT

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)
    ...WILLA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Willa was located near 16.6, -106.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Willa

  • Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...WILLA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 106.7W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from San Blas northward to Mazatlan, and a Tropical Storm Watch from Playa Perula northward to south of San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches may be required for a portion of the coast of mainland Mexico later today, and interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 106.7 West. Willa is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected by tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast and approach the coast of southwestern coast of mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ24 KNHC 211442
    TCMEP4
    
    HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
    1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
    OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN... AND A TROPICAL
    STORM
    WATCH FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF SAN BLAS.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
    
    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
    
    ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
    MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY... AND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
    COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
    64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
    50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
    AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.6W
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W
    MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
    34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
    34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.7W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
    
  • Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018
    
    000
    WTPZ44 KNHC 211443
    TCDEP4
    
    Hurricane Willa Discussion Number   6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
    900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018
    
    First-light GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that Willa
    continues to become better organized, with a tightly coiled band
    of convection wrapping around the center.  There has also been
    evidence of a small eye in recent microwave and infrared satellite
    pictures.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
    range from 77 kt to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been
    increased to 85 kt for this advisory.
    
    Willa is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. The track guidance
    continues to indicate that Willa will move northwestward today,
    then turn northward on Monday, and then head north-northeastward
    on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the
    Gulf of Mexico and an approaching mid-level trough. The dynamical
    model guidance remains in good overall agreement on this scenario,
    but there are differences in how quickly Willa will accelerate
    north-northeastward.  The UKMET and ECMWF are much slower than the
    remainder of the dynamical models, with the GFS and GFS ensemble
    mean the fastest.  The NHC track forecast brings the center of the
    Willa onshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 h, and
    it lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is a little
    faster than the other consensus aids.
    
    The hurricane is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear
    and over warm waters of around 28 degrees Celsius during the next
    day or two.  These very favorable conditions are expected to allow
    steady to rapid strengthening through Monday night, and the NHC
    forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance.  By 48
    hours, increasing southwesterly shear is forecast to initiate
    weakening, but Willa is likely to remain a very strong hurricane
    through landfall in southwestern Mexico.  After landfall, rapid
    weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland
    Mexico should occur.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of
    southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a
    life-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, and life-threatening
    flash flooding, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now
    in effect for a portion of the area.  Residents in the watch areas
    should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
    given by local officials.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  21/1500Z 16.6N 106.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
     12H  22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
     24H  22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
     36H  23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
     48H  23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
     72H  24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
     96H  25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    
  • Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018
    
    000
    FOPZ14 KNHC 211442
    PWSEP4
                                                                        
    HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                 
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018               
    1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
    16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
    85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  12(18)   1(19)   X(19)
     
    SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)
     
    LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
     
    HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
     
    LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
     
    CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   7(32)   X(32)
    CULIACAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
    CULIACAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
     
    ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  44(55)  35(90)   1(91)   X(91)
    ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  48(65)   1(66)   X(66)
    ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  38(43)   1(44)   X(44)
     
    MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  69(73)   5(78)   X(78)
    MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)   7(45)   X(45)
    MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   4(23)   X(23)
     
    SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)  53(61)   5(66)   X(66)
    SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)   3(31)   X(31)
    SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)
     
    P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)  27(40)   2(42)   X(42)
    P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)
    P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    15N 105W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   9(16)   1(17)   X(17)
     
    MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   5(11)   7(18)   1(19)   X(19)
     
    L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    15N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  13(26)   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)
    20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
    20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
    
  • Hurricane Willa Graphics

    Hurricane Willa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 14:51:37 GMT


    Hurricane Willa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 15:28:05 GMT