Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

Satellite loop from NOAA

 

Pacific Tropical Outlook

Satellite loop from NOAA

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120504
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Eleven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean 
more than 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 11
 the center of Eleven was located near 12.0, -41.5
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 120232
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020
 
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 41.5W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and 
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 120231
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  41.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  41.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  40.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.3N  43.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N  45.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N  48.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N  50.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N  53.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N  55.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N  60.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  41.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020  

913 
WTNT41 KNHC 120233
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020
 
After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has 
returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone.  While 
this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective 
pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than 
any strengthening.  This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few 
hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 
kt. 

By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a 
tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this 
environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding 
mid-level dry air from mixing near the center.  Gradually warming 
SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further 
intensification through about 2-3 days.  Thereafter, increasing 
southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry 
air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't 
be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5 
as it traverses the hostile environment.  The new NHC wind speed 
prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory 
through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA 
corrected-consensus mean.  
 
The depression continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt, to the 
south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central 
Atlantic. A break developing in the ridge should steer the 
depression more west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of 
the forecast period. For a second advisory, the track models are in 
remarkably good agreement, and the forecast is near or northeast of 
the model consensus.  The HWRF solution that takes the cyclone near 
the Leeward Islands is considering less likely at this time, hence 
the official forecast is shaded toward the other model solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 12.0N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 12.3N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 12.8N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 13.5N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 14.5N  50.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z 15.7N  53.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 17.0N  55.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 19.5N  60.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 22.0N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 120232
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020               
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics

Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 02:33:29 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 03:24:56 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120545
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Elida, located more than 400 miles west of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a 
broad of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form within the next couple of days.  The system is expected to 
move slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next several 
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low 
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
southwestward for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, 
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late 
this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over 
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of 
Central America.  Conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while 
it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far 
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple 
of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is 
possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward 
toward the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)

...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 11
 the center of Elida was located near 22.5, -116.5
 with movement WNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 120235
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through
Wednesday.  A turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday 
night and Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the 
next day or so as Elida moves over colder water, and the 
cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday
and degenerate to remnant low on Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 120235
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 116.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 116.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 120236
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops 
associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed, 
especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation.  A 
timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the 
southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level 
center is located a little south of recent position estimates 
using visible satellite imagery.  The latest subjective and 
objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt.  
The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best 
agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend 
of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed 
toward significantly cooler waters.  In addition, the vertical wind 
shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours. 
These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening 
over the next 24 to 36 hours.  Elida is forecast to weaken to a 
tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a 
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep 
convection.  The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the 
trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the 
various consensus aids. 

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  The 
cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as 
it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge 
centered over the southwestern United States.  After that time, a 
trough located well west of southern California is expected to 
weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down 
and turn northwestward.  The dynamical model guidance is in good 
agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the 
previous forecast was required. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 120236
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020               
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 120W       34  1  33(34)  18(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
25N 120W       50  X   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
25N 120W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Elida Graphics

Hurricane Elida 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 02:37:36 GMT

Hurricane Elida 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 03:32:03 GMT