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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 171147
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated
with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy
data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across
portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure
located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past
24 hours.  Continued gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves
north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Gert (AT3/AL082017)
    ...GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 17 the center of Gert was located near 43.2, -50.0 with movement ENE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Gert

  • Hurricane Gert Public Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 171433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.2N 50.0W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Forecast Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017
    
    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 171433
    TCMAT3
     
    HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
    1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N  50.0W AT 17/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  35 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
    64 KT.......  0NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
    50 KT.......  0NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 120SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 270NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N  50.0W AT 17/1500Z
    AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.2N  52.0W
     
    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N  43.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.3N  37.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW  70NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 51.3N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW 120NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 52.4N  34.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW 180NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N  50.0W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY
     
     
    
  • Hurricane Gert Forecast Discussion Number 19
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017
    
    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 171434
    TCDAT3
    
    Hurricane Gert Discussion Number  19
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
    1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017
    
    The convective structure of Gert has rapidly deteriorated during
    the morning hours due to very cold SSTs and vertical wind shear
    exceeding 40 kt. The hurricane still has a little deep convection
    in the northeast quadrant, but the low-level circulation appears to
    have become somewhat elongated along a south-southwest,
    north-northeast axis. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB
    and SAB have decreased, and the initial intensity has been decreased
    accordingly, to 70 kt. Since there is a lack of recent
    scatterometer or buoy observations near the center, the intensity
    estimate is a little more uncertain than normal.
    
    Gert continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the initial
    motion estimate is 060/35 kt. Very little change has been made to
    the track or intensity forecast. The cyclone is quickly becoming
    extratropical, and the transition process should complete later
    today. Gert should continue to steadily spin down while moving
    quickly toward the northeast for the next day or so ahead of a large
    extratropical low currently centered near the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
    An interaction of the two cyclones should result in the eventual
    absorption or dissipation of Gert shortly after 48 h. The track,
    intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated guidance from
    NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.
    
    Swells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the
    northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells
    are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
    Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for
    more information.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  17/1500Z 43.2N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
     12H  18/0000Z 46.0N  43.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     24H  18/1200Z 49.3N  37.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     36H  19/0000Z 51.3N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     48H  19/1200Z 52.4N  34.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    
  • Hurricane Gert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
    Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017
    
    000
    FONT13 KNHC 171434
    PWSAT3
    
    HURRICANE GERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
    1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017
    
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.2
    NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
    ...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
    
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
    
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
    
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
            12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
    
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
    
    
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
    
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
      TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
                 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
    
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    LOCATION       KT
    
    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY
    
  • Hurricane Gert Graphics

    Hurricane Gert 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 14:39:21 GMT


    Hurricane Gert 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 15:22:35 GMT

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092017)
...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 17
 the center of Nine was located near 13.1, -54.1
 with movement W at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 171439
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For
Martinique.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before
reaching the Windward islands.

If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a
tropical cyclone later today or tonight.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 171439
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  54.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  54.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  53.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.1N  56.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N  59.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.5N  63.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.9N  66.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N  82.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  54.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 171440
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

Satellite imagery, including experimental 1-minute data from
GOES-16, indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area
east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better defined, and that a
cluster of strong convection has formed just west of the center.
Based on this and the potential for the system to become a tropical
storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, advisories are being
initiated as a potential tropical cyclone.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon, and it is likely the aircraft will find a tropical
cyclone has formed.

The initial motion is 270/15.  A deep-layer ridge to the north of
the system should steer it generally just north of due west through
the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system
through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in
24-36 h, into the central Caribbean by 72 h, and to the western
Caribbean by 96-120 h.  The forecast track lies near the center of
the tightly clustered guidance envelope and lies near the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through the forecast period.  This seems favorable for
strengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady,
intensification.  However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the
system to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean
Sea, possibly due to dry air entrainment.  The intensity forecast
follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the
GFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.1N  54.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0000Z 13.1N  56.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  18/1200Z 13.2N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 13.5N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 13.9N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 14.5N  74.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 15.5N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 17.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017  

000
FONT14 KNHC 171439
PWSAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  26(31)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)

PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)

MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)

KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   X(16)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   5( 5)  21(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   4( 4)  22(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BARBADOS       34  X  19(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics



5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 14:45:36 GMT

 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 15:29:30 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171143
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is located about 600 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.  This system has a broad circulation, but
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression may
form within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 17 Aug 2017 15:34:55 GMT