Tropical Cyclone Activity
Atlantic Tropical Outlook

Pacific Tropical Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251737 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure is producing limited shower activity over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is moving westward into unfavorable environmental conditions, and development is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi
Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)
...PHILIPPE WEAKENS A LITTLE... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Philippe was located near 17.3, -46.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 252035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023 ...PHILIPPE WEAKENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 46.7W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 46.7 West. Philippe is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a northwestward motion is forecast to occur in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 252034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 46.7W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 30SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 46.7W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 48.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N 50.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.3N 52.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.4N 54.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.6N 55.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.2N 56.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.9N 57.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.4N 59.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KONARIK/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252038 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023 Visible satellite images continue to show Philippe with a fully exposed center far removed to the west of all of the deep convection. The continued disorganized appearance suggests at least some weakening has occurred, and satellite intensity estimates concur. Thus, the wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt. Philippe continues to be impacted by 20-25 kt of deep-layer west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. This wind shear is forecast by both GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models to persist or even increase further during the next few days. This unfavorable shear combined with dry air entrainment will hinder strengthening through the forecast period. A few models suggest some slight increase in intensity in the 48- to 72-hour time frame due to warmer sea-surface temperatures, but other environmental factors will remain negative. The new forecast indicates no change in strength over the next several days, with some weakening toward the end of the forecast period. The exposed low-level center of Philippe has been moving west today with a slight increase in forward motion this afternoon. The system should veer toward the west-northwest tonight then turn northwest by mid-week as Philippe moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. By late week, this weakness becomes less pronounced and the overall steering flow diminishes. The forecast track at the end of the period therefore slows and curves back toward the west-northwest. There remains considerable spread in the track models this afternoon, with the GFS and its ensemble members representing far rightward outliers. With the ongoing motion to the west and a leftward shift of the overall guidance output, the NHC forecast track has been adjusted slightly west, especially beyond 72 hours due to the aforementioned steering flow changes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.3N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.7N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.4N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.3N 52.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.4N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 21.6N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 22.2N 56.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 22.9N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 23.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 252035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2023 20:36:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2023 20:36:19 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 251753 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 25 2023 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 25 Sep 2023 20:39:45 GMT