Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251737
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 

Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing limited shower activity over 
portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is moving 
westward into unfavorable environmental conditions, and development 
is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form within the next few days as the system moves 
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

...PHILIPPE WEAKENS A LITTLE...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 25
 the center of Philippe was located near 17.3, -46.7
 with movement W at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 252035
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023
 
...PHILIPPE WEAKENS A LITTLE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 46.7W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 46.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a northwestward motion
is forecast to occur in a couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 252034
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  46.7W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  75SE  30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  46.7W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  46.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N  48.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N  50.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.3N  52.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.4N  54.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.6N  55.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.2N  56.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.9N  57.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.4N  59.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  46.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KONARIK/CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 252038
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023
 
Visible satellite images continue to show Philippe with a fully
exposed center far removed to the west of all of the deep
convection. The continued disorganized appearance suggests at least
some weakening has occurred, and satellite intensity estimates
concur. Thus, the wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt.
 
Philippe continues to be impacted by 20-25 kt of deep-layer
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. This wind shear is forecast
by both GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models to persist or even
increase further during the next few days. This unfavorable shear
combined with dry air entrainment will hinder strengthening through
the forecast period. A few models suggest some slight increase in
intensity in the 48- to 72-hour time frame due to warmer sea-surface
temperatures, but other environmental factors will remain negative.
The new forecast indicates no change in strength over the next
several days, with some weakening toward the end of the forecast
period.
 
The exposed low-level center of Philippe has been moving west today 
with a slight increase in forward motion this afternoon. The system 
should veer toward the west-northwest tonight then turn northwest by 
mid-week as Philippe moves toward a weakness in the subtropical 
ridge.  By late week, this weakness becomes less pronounced and the 
overall steering flow diminishes. The forecast track at the end of 
the period therefore slows and curves back toward the 
west-northwest. There remains considerable spread in the track 
models this afternoon, with the GFS and its ensemble members 
representing far rightward outliers. With the ongoing motion to the 
west and a leftward shift of the overall guidance output, the NHC 
forecast track has been adjusted slightly west, especially beyond 72 
hours due to the aforementioned steering flow changes.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 17.3N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 17.7N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 18.4N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 19.3N  52.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 20.4N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 21.6N  55.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 22.2N  56.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 22.9N  57.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 23.4N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 252035
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2023 20:36:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2023 20:36:19 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251753
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 25 Sep 2023 20:39:45 GMT