Tropical Cyclone Activity
Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Pacific Tropical Outlook
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181717
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However,
the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms
are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is
possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days.
Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Katz
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 18 Jul 2026 22:45:52 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181718
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elida, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.
Central East Pacific (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development
of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form
tonight or on Sunday while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the central portion of the eastern Pacific. For additional
information on this system, including storm warnings, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the
south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of next week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
portions of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP5/EP052026)
...NO CHANGE TO ELIDA'S INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 the center of Elida was located near 19.7, -124.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 182034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...NO CHANGE TO ELIDA'S INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 124.0W ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 124.0 West. Elida is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through much of the weekend. An eventual turn to the north is forecast to occur by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to begin weakening later tonight with that weakening trend forecast to continue over the next few days as the storm moves over cooler waters. Elida is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 182034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026 2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 170SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 123.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 124.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 125.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.6N 127.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 37.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 530 WTPZ45 KNHC 182035 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The satellite presentation for Elida has actually improved slightly since the last advisory. More convection has developed on the northern side of the inner core, while still retaining the deep convection on the southern side as well. However, the inner core is still ragged. Given the slightly improved presentation and steady state fixes, the intensity has been held at 60 kt. The tropical storm is still turning poleward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and the current motion is northwestward, or 300/9 kt. Elida is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northwest and then the north over the next 2-3 days as it is increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough encamped off the California coast. The track guidance has been fairly consistent, and only very small adjustments to the previous track were made. The storm has likely reached its peak intensity with only a few hours left over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening is forecast to begin later tonight, which could be accelerated by an increase in shear that is expected to begin in about a day. Elida is now expected to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical in about 60 hours. After that, the remnant low's circulation should dissipate off the California coast by day 5, around late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 21.0N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 23.0N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.2N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 27.6N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 37.0N 127.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026 193
FOPZ15 KNHC 182034
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 47 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
25N 125W 34 X 9( 9) 32(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
25N 125W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2026 21:21:44 GMT