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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271125
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the 
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the 
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward 
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
this afternoon.  Interests in the Windward Islands and along the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this 
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for 
portions of these areas later today.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf 
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.  Development 
of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves 
west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern 
Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions could become conducive for 
gradual development later this week while the system moves 
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 27 Jun 2022 14:37:25 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

265 
ABPZ20 KNHC 271122
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Celia, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts 
of Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers 
and a few thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions could support 
some gradual development of this disturbance during the next 
several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Storm Celia (EP3/EP032022)

...CELIA SLOWLY WEAKENING...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 27
 the center of Celia was located near 20.8, -116.9
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Celia Public Advisory Number 44

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 271434
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022
 
...CELIA SLOWLY WEAKENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 116.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 116.9 West.  Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Slow weakening is expected, and Celia should 
become a post-tropical remnant low within the next couple of days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.  These
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Advisory Number 44

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 271434
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022
1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE  90SE  75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 116.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion Number 44

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271435
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a single curved 
band of deep convection in the south semi-circle of the cyclone.
Over the past several hours, this banding feature has decreased in 
areal extent, and the cloud tops have warmed.  A 0945 UTC AMSR2
microwave image revealed a vertically tilted structure with the
surface circulation displaced to the southeast of the mid-level
feature.  The Dvorak satellite intensity estimate T numbers and a 
recent SATCON member consensus have decreased.  Therefore,
the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.
 
Celia should continue to spin down slowly during the next few days
while traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures.  Inhibiting 
thermodynamic environmental conditions are also expected to 
contribute to its eventual dissipation toward the end of the
week.  The NHC forecast is similar to last night's advisory and
closely resembles a blend of the IVCN and HCCA model intensity
predictions.
 
Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
295/9 kt, and the system is embedded in the mid-level steering flow 
generated by a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone.  
Little change in motion and forward speed is expected until 
dissipation.  The official track forecast is not much different 
from 
the previous one and lies in the middle of the model guidance suite.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 20.8N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Celia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 271434
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022               
1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Celia Graphics

Tropical Storm Celia 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 27 Jun 2022 14:36:28 GMT

Tropical Storm Celia 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Jun 2022 14:36:28 GMT