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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091727
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a 
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands 
continue to show signs of organization.  However, satellite-derived 
wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation 
remains elongated.  Environmental conditions appear conducive 
enough to support additional development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it 
moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.  
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late 
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 09 Aug 2020 22:52:21 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091727
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 9 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Elida, located a couple of hundred miles south of the 
southwest coast of Mexico.

An area of low pressure will likely form over the far western 
portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a few days.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week 
while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific 
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form well offshore of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week.  
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and this system could 
also become a tropical depression late this week while it moves 
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Elida are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Elida are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)

...ELIDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 9
 the center of Elida was located near 17.0, -106.4
 with movement WNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 092036
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020
 
...ELIDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 106.4 West. Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on
Monday.  Some weakening could begin late Tuesday or Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions
of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 092036
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020
2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  15SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 106.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092040
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020
 
Elida appears to be on a strengthening trend.  Visible satellite
images indicate that the storm's banding features are becoming more
tightly wrapped and symmetric around the center.  An ASCAT pass
from around 16Z showed maximum winds near 40 kt, but since the
storm continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little
higher at 45 kt.  This intensity estimate is in agreement with the
18Z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but slightly below
the latest SATCON and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.
 
Elida is likely on its way to becoming a hurricane as the
environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for
strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Now that the
storm appears to have a well-defined inner core and outer bands,
rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours with some
additional intensification expected until it reaches cooler waters 
in a couple of days.  After 48 hours, cooler waters and drier air
should cause a gradual decay of the system, and Elida is expected to
steadily weaken and become a remnant low by day 5.  The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, near HCCA,
in the short term, but ends near the middle of the guidance
envelope at the longer range times.
 
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt.  The
track forecast appears fairly straightforward.  A mid-level ridge
that stretches across northern Mexico and over a portion of the
east Pacific should cause Elida to move generally
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next
few days.  After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward
motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow.  The models are in fairly good 
agreement, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 17.0N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 092037
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  1  42(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
20N 110W       50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
20N 110W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  89(90)   4(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X  66(66)   9(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X  37(37)  11(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)  38(40)  15(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)  52(54)  38(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)  17(17)  52(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   5( 5)  37(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  49(55)   2(57)   X(57)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   1(21)   X(21)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Elida Graphics

Tropical Storm Elida 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 20:43:50 GMT

Tropical Storm Elida 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 21:24:53 GMT